“This is not a model that has many degrees of freedom,” Molnar said. This is a very close contact binary in Cygnus, which in 2017 was predicted to explode as a red nova in 2022. Well, this sure is one parade that's getting rained out of existence. A model for predicting exactly when a binary star will merge and explode has a literal one-in-a-million chance of being accurate — it’s never been done before. Exceptions … And the original researcher - astronomer Larry Molnar from Calvin College - has agreed with this new finding. “It either fits or it doesn’t, and it did.”. Predictions say this will happen in 2022: meantime, we can … If this event is anything like the 2008 explosion, it’ll take about six months to rise to its full brightness — 10,000 times greater than the brightness of the original. Knowledge advances the most when bold predictions are made, and people question and test those predictions," Socia said. "Often the most exciting discoveries happen when our expectations are not met. This is the time zone that I use for planning telescope observations. They re-ran the numbers, and the timings after 2007 checked out. Early in 2017, scientists forecast the collision of two stars in the constellation Cygnus – something that would result in a rare and wonderful phenomenon visible to the naked eye. And yes, we're a bit deflated about it; but ultimately, while science can giveth, its ability to taketh away is equally important. In the paper that originally described the 1999 data, published in 2004, a typo resulted in the misrepresentation of the timing of the eclipse by 12 hours. But eventually a binary star is going to collide, and there are now a lot of eyes out there looking for it. It would have been below the horizon. When binary star system KIC 9832227 finally merged, it was going to produce a luminous red nova - increasing in brightness 10,000-fold, which would be visible from Earth for some time. This error was carried into Molnar's team's calculations. Speedup, Slowdown, or Steady As She Goes. According to the researchers, in the year 2022 – just a few short years away – they were going to collide. (reference ?) And they're so close that they actually share parts of their atmospheres, what is known as a contact binary. This is the former. But that one 1999 datapoint was awry - a full hour later than it was supposed to be. "There have been a few other papers that have tried to poke at our project, and we've been able to poke back - criticisms that just don't fly. The two stars are locked in with each other so tightly that they take just 11 hours to perform one full orbit. Earlier this month astronomers reported that stars in KIC 9832227, a contact binary system, are going to collide in a few years, with a resulting, huge visible effect, making it a bright object in the sky. KIC 9832227 is a fascinating system. And it wasn't just going to be a small blip in the night sky. "It's actually because they agree with that fundamental premise that they dug deeper. And so the search for an impending stellar merger continues.". Molnar has been studying the binary star KIC 9832227 since 2013, and believes it will explode in 2022, give or take perhaps a year. Interestingly, the typo didn't occur in the article's preprint (it's the mjd, or Modified Julian Date, value in Table 6). And that plot looks like this: In this graph, the horizontal x-axis is time (the date), and the vertical axis is the orbital periodContinue reading “Speedup, Slowdown, or Steady As She Goes?”, Waiting for some more bad weather to clear, so let’s talk about time … There are a handful of different time zones that are relevant to this project: Local Time: Right now, local time for me is Eastern Standard Time. This isn't to say that, at some point in the future, KIC 9832227 isn't going to go kaboom; but that point isn't going to be in 2022. Lowlights . © ScienceAlert Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. Acquire Base line images of KIC 9832227 acquired. There are two stars. It will mean a noticeable change in the brightness of the night sky. That’s because the stars are so close to each other. KIC 9832227 is a fascinating system. This is a good example of how scientists from different parts of the world can work together to better understand how our universe works, bringing with them new pieces to the puzzle.". This illustrates how science can be self-correcting.". I can easilyContinue reading “Clocks and Time Zones”. He’s been able to observe that the times of the binary star’s eclipses are increasing in rate. But Calvin College professor Larry Molnar and his colleagues created one regardless, and it sure looks accurate so far. And they're so close that they actually share parts of their atmospheres, what is known as a contact binary. “If the prediction is correct, then for the first time in history, parents will be able to point to a dark spot in the sky and say, ‘Watch, kids, there’s a star hiding in there, but soon it’s going to light up.’”. Yep. Several targets acquired which was unexpected given the weather forecast at the beginning of the night which had cloud cover increasing to 70-97% . Molnar has been studying the binary star KIC 9832227 since 2013, and believes it will explode in 2022, give or take perhaps a year. The Mayan calendar predicted Bolon Yokte K’Uh (a god of the underworld) would turn up at the end of 2012 — supposedly marking the end of time. The problem was found to be with the data Molnar and his team used to make the prediction. And not much else. Get new content delivered directly to your inbox. And if he’s right, the sky will literally get brighter. The research has been published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters. Socia and his team got their hands on previously unpublished archival data from 2003, taken as part of the NASA Ames Vulcan Project. When it comes to space phenomena, it can sometimes be hard to tell what big numbers are actually as impressive as they sound and which are not actually big at all relative to, you know, the scale of the universe. A binary star is actually the term for two stars which orbit one another — so close they basically share an atmosphere. “You won’t need a telescope in 2023 to tell me whether I was wrong or I was right,” Molnar said. Speedup, Slowdown, or Steady As She Goes? The prediction was based on the timings of minimum light – that is, the point at mid-eclipse in which the light from the binary system is at its lowest – from all available sources. "The authors of the manuscript don't question our fundamental premise, which is to say 'this is something that you should be looking for, this is something that can be found,'" Molnar said. There was a long gap in the data before 2007, but in 1999, one observation had been taken as part of the Northern Sky Variability Survey. And that plot looks like this: In this graph, the horizontal x-axis is time (the date), and the vertical axis is the orbital period Continue reading by markinri January 16, 2020 Professor Molnar's exploration into the star known as KIC 9832227 began back in 2013. A team of researchers led by astronomer Quentin Socia at San Diego State University has meticulously pored over the mathematics, and come up with a different result. The KIC 9832227 system is 1800 light years away. Molnar has been drawing on data from the explosion of red nova star V1309 in 2008 — a “Rosetta Stone” of sorts for predicting future similar explosions before they happen. Targets. KIC 9832227 is just the latest event being exploited by a chain of astrological predictions of impending doom. The telescope would not have been been able to see it. He presented the research Friday at the 229th American Astronomical Science meeting in Grapevine, Texas. Update: KIC 9832227 WILL NOT turn Red Nova in 2022 - YouTube The eclipse absolutely couldn't have occurred at the time the published paper stated, either. Molnar and his team used Calvin Observatory data between 2013 and 2016. Between 2007 and 2013, they used data from other observatories. KIC 9832227. Big telescopes like Chile’s Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) get most of the attention — not unjustly — but it’s small telescopes that provide the advantage in scenarios like this one. Socia calculated where KIC 9832227 would have been at that specific time. But this one does fly, and I think they have a good point. And they found that the eclipses were occurring half an hour later than predicted by Molnar's merger hypothesis. “When this thing occurs, if it occurs, we will not miss it.”, 229th American Astronomical Science meeting. And the news spread like wildfire. Now, though, that prediction has been nixed. A string of ‘blood moons’ in 2015 was said by US evangelicals to herald Armageddon. We generally think they must eventually fall into each other, merge, and explode, though no one can say they must do so with certainty. “Speedup, Slowdown, or Steady As She Goes?”. Maybe two stars spiraling in toward a collision sometime soon? From the Calvin College observatory in New Mexico, Molnar et al will spend the next year observing KIC 9832227 and parsing the data to see if they can identify binary stars dying in real time. They're also an eclipsing binary, oriented in just the right way that, as they orbit, they eclipse each other from our point of view here on Earth. “The project is significant not only because of the scientific results, but also because it is likely to capture the imagination of people on the street,” said Matt Walhout, dean for research and scholarship at Calvin College, in an AAS press release. So it's not going to be KIC 9832227. We now have enough data to make a plot showing how the period of KIC 9832227 has (or has not) been changing since we started observing at the end of November.

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